More Election Analysis

I was asked why Obama did so well (from an ardent Hillary supporter).  I have a few reasons for why I believe he is doing well.  

  • He isn’t Hillary.  I don’t care what you say, she is divisive…you love her or you hate her.  
  • His message of change and being an outsider appeals to people who are sick of the gridlock in the Nations Capital.  They want a “relative” outsider, especially compared to Hillary.  I also think there is a fair amount of people who don’t want another Clinton or Bush Administration. We have had the same political families in office for 20 years…many people don’t want to make that 24/28 years?   
  • I honestly think that people are mesmerized by Obama’s message and they like the idea of “Camelot.”  He is a movement. 
  • His unequivocal stance on the war. He has always been against it.  Hillary gets nailed on her original vote of support.  I think had her campaign decided a year ago to say, “Yes, I voted for the war but then later figured out I was wrong” she would have been okay.  But she stands by her initial vote, and I think that hurts her.
  • Obama appeals to independents, Hillary doesn’t.  (Which is interesting because he is rather liberal, which I think gets back to my first bullet point). 

Obama did well in states that held a caucus (North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota) and in the south. I think some people falsely assume that most women will vote for a woman. However polls show that Clinton only has a slight edge on women voters.  

 

Now it all turns to Texas & Ohio (March 4, both with large delegate counts).  What is interesting about Texas is the large Hispanic vote and large conservative contingency.  Nationally, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat, however a fair amount of Texas Hispanics vote Republican.  Hillary tends to pull the Hispanic vote among the Democrats.   Conservatives are not happy with McCain, and they make up a large portion of Texas Republicans.  Also on the top of the list of concerns in Texas is the immigration issue. So, who will the Hispanics vote for in Texas?  Who will the conservatives pick?  Does Huckabee continue his momentum?

 

It is all even more interesting now that Romney is out of the race.

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2 Responses to More Election Analysis

  1. Irma says:

    It’s crazy…we even had a big discussion about it at last night’s book group meeting!! One of my girlfriend’s is voting “ABC” – (anyone but Clinton)…

  2. Tracy says:

    Another great post…and a super analysis! I’m looking forward to the caucuses this weekend and next Tuesday’s primaries in DC, Virginia, and Maryland. It looks like the Democratic race will be going down to the wire…

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