My Fellow Texans, you have not been this important in a long time! Don’t get me wrong, I always find the Texas vote important, but for years the Texas primary has come when candidates have already been selected. Are you ready? Are you tired of all the Ads? I hope you have scheduled time out tomorrow to go vote (or I hope you have already voted).
Tomorrow is a very interesting day. Did you know there are actually 4 State having a primary tomorrow? Everyone is so focused on Texas (193 Democrat Delegates at stake and 140 Republican delegates at stake) & Ohio (141 D, 88 R delegates) that nobody is really talking about Rhode Island (21 Democrat Delegates, 20 Republican delegates) and Vermont (14 D and 17 R delegates). You look at the Delegate count and you know why.
I hear your question now, how come the parties have different delegate counts? The parties have different views on how to divide up votes. The Democrats focus a bit more on making sure everyone has a small portion of the vote. J In fact, Texas Democrats apportion their votes based on previous voter turnout. It is really too complicated to explain in this post. Why they complicated it? I can’t tell you.
I am very interested in watching tomorrow’s results, especially in Texas. They expect 2 Million people to vote in the Democrat primary in Texas. That is a HUGE number, especially for a state where the Democrat voter turnout has been historically very low. In the past when we have had a contested presidential primary, the Texas primary voter turnout has been around 1 million voters. Additionally, they are expecting a large youth voter turnout. During the last Presidential election the youth vote in Texas was only 10% of the eligible youth population. (I personally never count on the youth vote. I know people say there is a huge movement right now…but I am going to wait and see if they follow through and vote in the General Election.) The youth voter turnout is historically unreliable. Also making Texas interesting is the huge Hispanic voting population, which is not all Democrat. I am excited to see the number of young voters and the Hispanic vote in Texas.
Tomorrows primaries should take McCain over the required 1191 votes to win the Republican nomination. I suspect Huckabee will drop out this week after that happens. I believe it is a must win for Hillary in Ohio and Texas, and I don’t see that happening. I think she will split the win and take Ohio but lose Texas. At this point she should drop out, but I am not sure if she will do it. She can’t win the nomination after tomorrow unless she takes both big states or wins Ohio with over 65% of the vote.
As far as I can see, it will be McCain v. Obama in the general election. I can’t say I am too upset with that. At least no one on the ticket brings up a visceral hate from my belly. I still like my guys record over the liberal light on experience Obama, however, I think Obama is energizing new people and that could lead to a great revolution in the future governance of this country. It can never hurt to have more people involved in their government.
Now, if I could just get my friend Marty to vote. I think that is going to have to go on my list of thing I want to accomplish before I die.