Al-right folks, lets do some more math.
Tomorrow could be the big day. We could have a Democrat Nominee for President. Clinton has a big speech planned, perhaps it could be a concession speech. Tomorrow we have the final two primaries: South Dakota & Montana (We actually also have the Republican Primary in New Mexico…but that is a done deal). Montana has 25 delegates at stake and 7 Super Delegates. South Dakota has 23 delegates and 7 super delegates. Let us ignore the super delegates because some of those guys have already declared.
As of today, Obama only needs 42 delegates to clinch the nomination and there are about 160 unpledged Super Delegates. (Remember the magic number is: 2118. Obama has 2076; Clinton has 1917). Because of the proportional distribution of delegates, I suspect that tomorrow’s net gain for Obama will be between 20-25 delegates. That will put him with 20 or less delegates needed to give him the nomination. He will need to find that from the Super Delegates who will be getting pressure tomorrow to declare their support and end this.
Now let’s turn to Hillary. The Clinton campaign has been saying that although she may not lead in the delegate count, she leads in the popular vote. THIS MAKE ME SMILE EAR TO EAR! Florida & Michigan votes are in dispute because they jumped ahead in the Primary season (see my previous blog entry on Political Math). How do we count these two major states? Excellent question! The Democratic National Committee decided on Saturday to seat 50% of the delegates at the Convention (the exact way the Republican are punishing states that jumped ahead of the primary schedule).
Back to Clinton: The only way she leads in the popular vote is if you count Michigan votes, but DON’T give Obama the uncommitted votes in Michigan. Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan (Huge campaign mistake…lesson learned for next time). So, voters in Michigan had a choice between Hillary Clinton or Uncommitted. Hard call I know. So, if you give Hillary her votes in Michigan, but you DO NOT give Obama the 238,168 uncommitted votes in Michigan, then Hillary leads.
But, if you don’t count Florida and you don’t count Michigan (The national parties did not recognize these primaries and the candidates did not focus on these states), Obama leads by almost 450,000 votes. If you divide Florida and Michigan in a proportional manner, you still have Obama leading by almost 125,000 votes.
So as you can see, it is some fuzzy math that allows Hillary to say she has the popular vote. But frankly, I wish she could claim this. It with give me the greatest pleasure to see the Democrats have to give the Presidential nod to someone who has the delegate count but not the popular vote. (If you are confused by this statement, please check out the 2000 presidential election.)
As I have said before, I think Hillary is the stronger traditional candidate for the D’s. She is correct when she says she can carry the Must Win states (she carried all of them…remember folks..its all about the Electoral vote…not the popular vote. Again, I refer you to the Constitution if you are confused.) But this year’s election is going to be a crap shoot and probably different then conventional wisdom. I can’t wait!
However, the one thing that scares the crap out of me is an Obama/Clinton ticket. It makes me really nervous when I see Hillary starting to soften up to the idea of a dream ticket. I guess we will fight that battle when we get there. Nothing like running a bunch of old boring guys against Obama/Clinton.
BTW Lynn, You are on my list! Quit posting comments on that photo!