I have not posted in a while because I am over dosing on politics. Yes, I know you are shocked. But when you work in politics this is the high season. I imagine it is a lot like April for accountants. We are so immersed in the polling and political game day analysis. Every day we spend hours discussing “what if” scenarios, criticizing bone headed campaign moves, debating presidential platforms, etc, etc, etc Meetings once a week consist of briefings by pollsters or campaign experts discussing the current situation. I find it fascinating and I love the back and forth on policy issues with my friends/colleagues on the other side of the isle (whom I utterly respect but we just don’t see eye to eye on policy) but I am getting it 24–7 right now.
On top of working in politics during the high season, I am also living in a swing state (who knew Virginia would be a swing state!) I have to say, it stinks! Tonight alone I have gotten 4 phone calls about the elections. Thank God for Tivo because I am not sure I could deal with all the campaign commercials. They are on every 15 minutes! It is really ANNOYING! Tuesday can’t get here fast enough.
I voted…have you? I went middle of the afternoon on a Thursday and had to wait 20 minutes. I saw about 100 people vote in the process. I am very excited to see what kind of record turnout we get. Could we actually get almost 70%? I doubt it, but maybe low 60%?
Although I am being realistic and have already calculated my tax increase under Obama (yes I make under $250K and I will have to pay at least another $6600 in taxes) I have not given up. I don’t believe all those polls that say Obama has a wide lead. I don’t believe it is going to be a blowout like some are predicting. I think it could even be a situation where we don’t know right away. I guess now we just wait and see.
Go early vote if you can!
A few interesting polls. These are not the national ones showing +7, +9, +11 leads for Obama, but they are doing some interesting anlysis. (My favorite quote is from Mark Twain who said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” I have to say now I am glad I did not take the job with the pollster.) These offer an interesting view.
This is very interesting. According to an LA Times/Bloomberg poll of those who voted early in Florida, McCain leads Obama 49-45% even though more Democrats voted than Republicans.
And another one:
If These Numbers Are Right, You Can Almost Call Nevada For McCain Now
Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.
If Republicans were a lot more of the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.
In Clark County, “through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.”
“In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans.”